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How lenders can use data to anticipate balance transfer activity

Published: August 1, 2016 by Kyle Matthies

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Experian estimates card-to-card consumer balance transfer activity to be between $35 and $40 billion a year, representing a sizeable opportunity for proactive lenders seeking to grow their revolving product line.

This opportunity, however, is a threat for reactive lenders that only measure portfolio attrition instead of working to retain current customers. While billions of dollars are transferred every year, this activity represents only a small percentage of the total card population. And given the expense of direct marketing, lenders seeking to capitalize on and protect their portfolio from balance transfer activity must leverage data insights to make more informed decisions.

Predicting a consumer’s future propensity to engage in card-to-card balance transfers starts with trended data. A credit score is a snapshot in time, but doesn’t reveal deep insights about a consumer’s past balance transfer activity. Lenders that rely only on current utilization will group large populations of balance revolvers into one bucket – and many of these individuals will have no intention of transferring to another product in the near future.

Still, balance transfer activity can be identified and predicted by utilizing trended data. By analyzing the spend and payment data over time to see when one (or multiple) trade’s payment approximately matches another trade’s spend, we have the logic that suggests there has been a card-to-card transfer.

What most people don’t realize is that trended data is difficult to work with. With 24 months of history on five fields, a single trade includes 120 data points. That’s 720 data points for a consumer with six trades on file and 72,000,000 for a file with 100,000 records, not to mention the other data fields in the file.

It’s easy to see why even the most sophisticated organizations become paralyzed working with trended data. While teams of analysts get buried in the data, projects drag, costs swell, and eventually the world changes as rates climb and fall. By the time the analysis is complete, it must be recalibrated.

But there is a solution.balance-transfer

Experian has developed powerful predictions tools that combine past balance transfer history, historical transfer amounts, current trades carried and utilized, payments, and spend. Combined, these data fields can help identify consumers who are most likely to transfer a balance in the future. With Experian’s Balance Transfer Index the highest scoring 10 percent of consumers capture nearly 70 percent of total balance transfer dollars. Imagine the impact on ROI of reducing 90 percent of the marketing cost of your next balance transfer campaign and still reaching 70 percent of the balance transfer activity.

Balance transfer activity represents a meaningful dollar opportunity for growth, but is concentrated in a small percentage of the population making predictive analytics key to success. Trended data is essential for identifying those opportunities, but financial institutions must assess their capabilities when it comes to managing the massive data attached.

The good news is that regardless of financial institution size, solutions now exist to capture the analytics and provide meaningful and actionable insights to lenders of all sizes.

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"Grandma, it’s me, Mike.” Imagine hearing the voice of a loved one (or what sounds like it) informing you they were arrested and in need of bail money. Panicked, a desperate family member may follow instructions to withdraw a large sum of money to provide to a courier. Suspicious, they even make a video call to which they see a blurry image on the other end, but the same voice. When the fight or flight feeling settles, reality hits. Sadly, this is not the scenario of an upcoming Netflix movie. This is fraud – an example of a new grandparent scam/family emergency scam happening at scale across the U.S. While generative AI is driving efficiencies, personalization and improvements in multiple areas, it’s also a technology being adopted by fraudsters. Generative AI can be used to create highly personalized and convincing messages that are tailored to a specific victim. By analyzing publicly available social media profiles and other personal information, scammers can use generative AI to create fake accounts, emails, or phone calls that mimic the voice and mannerisms of a grandchild or family member in distress. The use of this technology can make it particularly difficult to distinguish between real and fake communication, leading to increased vulnerability and susceptibility to fraud. Furthermore, generative AI can also be used to create deepfake videos or audio recordings that show the supposed family member in distress or reinforce the scammer's story. These deepfakes can be incredibly realistic, making it even harder for victims to identify fraudulent activity. What is Generative AI? Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) describes algorithms that can be used to create new content, including audio, code, images, text, simulations, and videos. Generative AI has the potential to revolutionize many industries by creating new and innovative content, but it also presents a significant risk for financial institutions. Cyber attackers can use generative AI to produce sophisticated malware, phishing schemes, and other fraudulent activities that can cause data breaches, financial losses, and reputational damage. This poses a challenge for financial organizations, as human error remains one of the weakest links in cybersecurity. Fraudsters capitalizing on emotions such as fear, stress, desperation, or inattention can make it difficult to protect against malicious content generated by generative AI, which could be used as a tactic to defraud financial institutions. Four types of Generative AI used for Fraud: Fraud automation at scale Fraudulent activities often involve multiple steps which can be complex and time-consuming. However, GenAI may enable fraudsters to automate each of these steps, thereby establishing a comprehensive framework for fraudulent attacks. The modus operandi of GenAI involves the generation of scripts or code that facilitates the creation of programs capable of autonomously pilfering personal data and breaching accounts. Previously, the development of such codes and programs necessitated the expertise of seasoned programmers, with each stage of the process requiring separate and fragmented development. Nevertheless, with the advent of GenAI, any fraudster can now access an all-encompassing program without the need for specialized knowledge, amplifying the inherent danger it poses. It can be used to accelerate fraudsters techniques such as credential stuffing, card testing and brute force attacks. Text content generation In the past, one could often rely on spotting typos or errors as a means of detecting such fraudulent schemes. However, the emergence of GenAI has introduced a new challenge, as it generates impeccably written scripts that possess an uncanny authenticity, rendering the identification of deceit activities considerably more difficult. But now, GenAI can produce realistic text that sounds as if it were from a familiar person, organization, or business by simply feeding GenAI prompts or content to replicate. Furthermore, the utilization of innovative Language Learning Model (LLM) tools enables scammers to engage in text-based conversations with multiple victims, skillfully manipulating them into carrying out actions that ultimately serve the perpetrators' interests. Image and video manipulation In a matter of seconds, fraudsters, regardless of their level of expertise, are now capable of producing highly authentic videos or images powered by GenAI. This innovative technology leverages deep learning techniques, using vast amounts of collected datasets to train artificial intelligence models. 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Criminals can also use AI chatbots to build relationships with victims and exploit their emotions to convince them to invest money or share personal information. Pig butchering scams and romance scams are examples of these types of frauds where AI chatbots can be highly effective, as they are friendly, convincing, and can easily follow a script. In particular, synthetic identity fraud has become an increasingly common tactic among cybercriminals. By creating fake personas with plausible social profiles, hackers can avoid detection while conducting financial crimes. It is essential for organizations to remain vigilant and verify the identities of any new contacts or suppliers before engaging with them. Failure to do so could result in significant monetary loss and reputational damage. Leverage AI to fight bad actors In today's digital landscape, businesses face increased fraud risks from advanced chatbots and generative technology. 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