Models & Scores

This article was updated on February 13, 2024. Traditional credit data has long been a reliable source for measuring consumers' creditworthiness. While that's not changing, new types of alternative credit data are giving lenders a more complete picture of consumers' financial health. With supplemental data, lenders can better serve a wider variety of consumers and increase financial access and opportunities in their communities. What is alternative credit data? Alternative credit data, also known as expanded FCRA-regulated data, is data that can help you evaluate creditworthiness but isn't included in traditional credit reports.1 To comply with the Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA), alternative credit data must be displayable, disputable and correctable. Lenders are increasingly turning to new types and sources of data as the use of alternative credit data becomes the norm in underwriting. Today, lenders commonly use one or more of the following: Alternative financial services data: Alternative financial services (AFS) credit data can include information on consumers' use of small-dollar installment loans, single-payment loans, point-of-sale financing, auto title loans and rent-to-own agreements. Consumer permission data: With a consumer's permission, you can get transactional and account-level data from financial accounts to better assess income, assets and cash flow. The access can also give insight into payment history on non-traditional accounts, such as utilities, cell phone and streaming services. Rental payment history: Property managers, electronic rent payment services and rent collection companies can share information on consumers' rent payment history and lease terms. Full-file public records: Local- and state-level public records can tell you about a consumer's professional and occupational licenses, education, property deeds and address history. Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) data: BNPL tradeline and account data can show you payment and return histories, along with upcoming scheduled payments. It may become even more important as consumers increasingly use this new type of point-of-sale financing. By gathering more information, you can get a deeper understanding of consumers' creditworthiness and expand your lending universe. From market segmentation to fraud prevention and collections, you can also use alternative credit data throughout the customer lifecycle. READ: 2023 State of Alternative Credit Data Report Challenges in underwriting today While unemployment rates are down, high inflation, rising interest rates and uncertainty about the economy are impacting consumer sentiment and the lending environment.2 Additionally, lenders may need to shift their underwriting approaches as pandemic-related assistance programs and loan accommodations end. Lenders may want to tighten their credit criteria. But, at the same time, consumers are becoming accustomed to streamlined application processes and responses. A slow manual review could lead to losing customers. Alternative credit data can help you more accurately assess consumers' creditworthiness, which may make it easier to identify high-risk applicants and find the hidden gems within medium-risk segments. Layering traditional and alternative credit data with the latest approaches to model building, such as using artificial intelligence, can also help you implement precise and predictive underwriting strategies. Benefits of using alternative data for credit underwriting Using alternative data for credit underwriting — along with custom credit attributes and automation — is the modern approach to a risk-based credit approval strategy. The result can offer: A greater view of consumer creditworthiness: Personal cash flow data and a consumer's history of making (or missing) payments that don't appear on traditional credit reports can give you a better understanding of their financial position. Improve speed and accuracy of credit decisions: The expanded view helps you create a more efficient underwriting process. Automated underwriting tools can incorporate alternative credit data and attributes with meaningful results. One lender, Atlas Credit, worked with Experian to create a custom model that incorporated alternative credit data and nearly doubled its approvals while reducing risk by 15 to 20 percent.3 Increase financial inclusion: There are 28 million American adults who don't have a mainstream credit file and 21 million who aren't scoreable by conventional scoring models.4 With alternative credit data, you may be able to more accurately assess the creditworthiness of adults who would otherwise be deemed thin file or unscorable. Broadening your pool of applications while appropriately managing risk is a measurable success. What Experian builds and offers Experian is continually expanding access to expanded FCRA-regulated data. Our Experian RentBureau and Clarity Services (the leading source of alternative financial credit data) have long given lenders a more complete picture of consumers' financial situation. Experian also helps lenders effectively use these new types of data. You can also incorporate the data into your proprietary marketing, lending and collections strategies. Experian is also using alternative credit data for credit scoring. The Lift Premium™ model can score 96 percent of U.S. adults — compared to the 81 percent that conventional models can score using traditional data.5 The bottom line Lenders have been testing and using alternative credit data for years, but its use in underwriting may become even more important as they need to respond to changing consumer expectations and economic uncertainty. Experian is supporting this innovation by expanding access to alternative data sources and helping lenders understand how to best use and implement alternative credit data in their lending strategies. Learn more 1When we refer to “Alternative Credit Data," this refers to the use of alternative data and its appropriate use in consumer credit lending decisions, as regulated by the Fair Credit Reporting Act. Hence, the term “Expanded FCRA Data" may also apply and can be used interchangeably. 2Experian (2024). State of the Economy Report 3Experian (2020). OneAZ Credit Union [Case Study] 4Oliver Wyman (2022). Financial Inclusion and Access to Credit [White Paper] 5Ibid.

Companies depend on quality information to make decisions that move their business objectives forward while minimizing risk exposure. And in today’s modern, tech-driven, innovation-led world, there’s more  information available than ever before. Expansive datasets from sources, both internal and external, allow decision-makers to leverage a wide range of intelligence to fuel how they plan, forecast and set priorities. But how can business leaders be sure that their data is as robust, up-to-date and thorough as they need — and, most importantly, that they’re able to use it to its fullest potential? That’s where the power of advanced analytics comes in. By making use of cutting-edge datasets and analytics insights, businesses can stay on the vanguard of business intelligence and ahead of their competitors. What is advanced analytics? Advanced analytics is a form of business intelligence that takes full advantage of the most modern data sources and analytics tools to create forward-thinking analysis that can help businesses make well-informed, data-driven decisions that are tailored to their needs. Simply put, advanced analytics is an essential component of any proactive business strategy that aims to maximize the future potential of both customers and campaigns. These advanced business intelligence and analytics solutions  help leaders make profitable decisions no matter the state of the current economic climate. They use both traditional and non-traditional data sources to provide businesses with actionable insights in the formats best suited to their needs and goals. One key aspect of advanced analytics is the use of AI analytics solutions. These efficient and effective tools help businesses save time and money by harnessing the power of cutting-edge technologies and deploying them in optimal use-case scenarios. These AI and machine-learning solutions use a wide range of tools, such as neural network methodologies, to help organizations optimize their allocation of resources, expediting and automating some processes while creating valuable insights to help human decision-makers navigate others. Benefits of advanced analytics Traditional business intelligence tends to be limited by the scope and quality of available data and ability of analysts to make use of it in an effective, comprehensive way. Modern business intelligence analytics, on the other hand, integrates machine learning and analytics to maximize the potential of data sets that, in today's technology-driven world, are often overwhelmingly large and complex: think not just databases of customer decisions and actions but behavioral data points tied to online and offline activity and the internet of things. What's more, advanced analytics does this in a way that's accessible to an entire organization — not just those who know their way around data, like IT departments and trained analysts. With the right advanced analytics solution, decision-makers can access convenient cloud-based dashboards designed to give them the information they want and need — with no clutter, noise or confusing terminology. Another key advantage of advanced analytics solutions is that they don't just analyze data — they optimize it, too. Advanced analytics offers the ability to clean up and integrate multiple data sets to remove duplicates, correct errors and inaccuracies and standardize formats, leading to high-quality data that creates clarity, not confusion. The result? By analyzing and identifying relationships across data, businesses can uncover hidden insights and issues. Advanced analytics also automate some aspects of the decision-making process to make workflows quicker and nimbler. For example, a business might choose to automate credit scoring, product recommendations for existing customers or the identification of potential fraud. Reducing manual interventions translates to increased agility and operational efficiency and, ultimately, a better competitive advantage. Use cases in the financial services industry Advanced analytics gives businesses in the financial world the power to go deeper into their data — and to integrate alternative data sources as well. With predictive analytics models, this data can be transformed into highly usable, next-level insights that help decision-makers optimize their business strategies. Credit risk, for instance, is a major concern for financial organizations that want to offer customers the best possible options while ensuring their credit products remain profitable. By utilizing advanced analytics solutions combined with a broad range of datasets, lenders can create highly accurate credit risk scores that forecast future customer behavior and identify and mitigate risk, leading to better lending decisions across the credit lifecycle. Advanced analytics solutions can also help businesses problem-solve. Let's say, for instance, that uptake of a new loan product has been slower than desired. By using business intelligence analytics, companies can determine what factors might be causing the issue and predict the tweaks and changes they can make to improve results. Advanced analytics means better, more detailed segmentation, which allows for more predictive insights. Businesses taking advantage of advanced analytics services are simply better informed: not only do they have access to more and better data, but they're able to convert it into actionable insights that help them lower risk, better predict outcomes, and boost the performance of their business. How we can help Experian offers a wide range of advanced analytics tools aimed at helping businesses in all kinds of industries succeed through better use of data. From custom machine learning models that help financial institutions assess risk more accurately to self-service dashboards designed to facilitate more agile responses to changes in the market, we have a solution that's right for every business. Plus, our advanced analytics offerings include a vast data repository with insights on 245 million credit-active individuals and 25 million businesses, as well as the industry's largest alternative data set from non-traditional lenders. Ready to explore? Click below to learn about our advanced analytics solutions. Learn more

In today’s complex business landscape, data-based decision-making has become the norm, with advanced technologies and analytics tools facilitating faster and more accurate modeling and predictions. However, with the increased reliance on models, the risk of errors has also increased, making it crucial for organizations to have a comprehensive model risk management framework. In this blog post, we will dive deeper into model risk management, its importance for organizations, and the key elements of a model risk management framework. What is model risk? First, let's define what we mean by model risk. Many institutions use models to forecast and predict the future performance of investments, portfolios or consumers' creditworthiness. Model risk can happen when the results produced by these models are inaccurate or not fit for the intended purpose. This risk arises due to several factors, like data limitations, model assumptions and inherent complexities in the underlying modeled processes. For example, in the credit industry, an inaccurately calibrated credit risk model may incorrectly assess a borrower's default risk, resulting in erroneous credit decisions and impacting overall portfolio performance. What is a risk management model and why is it important? A risk management model, or model risk management, refers to a systematic approach to manage the potential risks associated with the use of models and, more specifically, quantitative models built on data. Since models are based on a wide range of assumptions and predictions, it's essential to recognize the possibility of errors and acknowledge its impact on business decisions. The goal of model risk management is to provide a well-defined and structured approach to identifying, assessing, and mitigating risks associated with model use. The importance of model risk management for institutions that leverage quantitative risk models in their decisioning strategies cannot be overstated. Without proper risk management models, businesses are vulnerable to significant consequences, such as financial losses, regulatory enforcement actions and reputational damage. Model risk management: essential elements The foundation of model risk management includes standards and processes for model development, validation, implementation and ongoing monitoring. This includes: Policies and procedures that provide a clear framework for model use and the associated risks. Model inventory and management that captures all models used in an organization. Model development and implementation that documents the policies for developing and implementing models, defining critical steps and role descriptions. Validation and ongoing monitoring to ensure the models meet their stated objectives and to detect drift. In addition to these essential elements, a model risk management framework must integrate an ongoing system of transparency and communication to ensure that each stakeholder in model risk governance is aware of the policies, processes and decisions that support model use. Active engagement with modelers, validators, business stakeholders, and audit functions, among other stakeholders, is essential and should be included in the process. How we can help Experian® provides solutions and risk mitigation tools to help organizations of all sizes establish a solid model risk management framework to meet regulatory and model risk governance requirements, improve overall model performance and identify and mitigate potential risk. We provide services for back testing, benchmarking, sensitivity analysis and stress testing. In addition, our experts can review your organization’s current model risk management practices, conduct a gap analysis and assist with audit preparations. Learn more *This article includes content created by an AI language model and is intended to provide general information.

Model explainability has become a hot topic as lenders look for ways to use artificial intelligence (AI) to improve their decision-making. Within credit decisioning, machine learning (ML) models can often outperform traditional models at predicting credit risk.  ML models can also be helpful throughout the customer lifecycle, from marketing and fraud detection to collections optimization. However, without explainability, using ML models may result in unethical and illegal business practices.  What is model explainability?  Broadly defined, model explainability is the ability to understand and explain a model's outputs at either a high level (global explainability) or for a specific output (local explainability).1  Local vs global explanation: Global explanations attempt to explain the main factors that determine a model's outputs, such as what causes a credit score to rise or fall. Local explanations attempt to explain specific outputs, such as what leads to a consumer's credit score being 688. But it's not an either-or decision — you may need to explain both.  Model explainability can also have varying definitions depending on who asks you to explain a model and how detailed of a definition they require. For example, a model developer may require a different explanation than a regulator.  Model explainability vs interpretability  Some people use model explainability and interpretability interchangeably. But when the two terms are distinguished, model interpretability may refer to how easily a person can understand and explain a model's decisions.2 We might call a model interpretable if a person can clearly understand:  The features or inputs that the model uses to make a decision.  The relative importance of the features in determining the outputs.  What conditions can lead to specific outputs.  Both explainability and interpretability are important, especially for credit risk models used in credit underwriting. However, we will use model explainability as an overarching term that encompasses an explanation of a model's outputs and interpretability of its internal workings below.  ML models highlight the need for explainability in finance  Lenders have used credit risk models for decades. Many of these models have a clear set of rules and limited inputs, and they might be described as self-explanatory. These include traditional linear and logistic regression models, scorecards and small decision trees.3  AI analytics solutions, such as ML-powered credit models, have been shown to better predict credit risk. And most financial institutions are increasing their budgets for advanced analytics solutions and see their implementation as a top priority.4  However, ML models can be more complex than traditional models and they introduce the potential of a “black box." In short, even if someone knows what goes into and comes out of the model, it's difficult to explain what's happening without an in-depth analysis.  Lenders now have to navigate a necessary trade-off. ML-powered models may be more predictive, but regulatory requirements and fair lending goals require lenders to use explainable models.  READ MORE: Explainability: ML and AI in credit decisioning  Why is model explainability required?  Model explainability is necessary for several reasons:  To comply with regulatory requirements: Decisions made using ML models need to comply with lending and credit-related, including the Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA) and Equal Credit Opportunity Act (ECOA). Lenders may also need to ensure their ML-driven models comply with newer AI-focused regulations, such as the AI Bill of Rights in the U.S. and the E.U. AI Act.  To improve long-term credit risk management: Model developers and risk managers may want to understand why decisions are being made to audit, manage and recalibrate models.  To avoid bias: Model explainability is important for ensuring that lenders aren't discriminating against groups of consumers.  To build trust: Lenders also want to be able to explain to consumers why a decision was made, which is only possible if they understand how the model comes to its conclusions.  There's a real potential for growth if you can create and deploy explainable ML models. In addition to offering a more predictive output, ML models can incorporate alternative credit data* (also known as expanded FCRA-regulated data) and score more consumers than traditional risk models. As a result, the explainable ML models could increase financial inclusion and allow you to expand your lending universe.  READ MORE: Raising the AI Bar  How can you implement ML model explainability?  Navigating the trade-off and worries about explainability can keep financial institutions from deploying ML models. As of early 2023, only 14 percent of banks and 19 percent of credit unions have deployed ML models. Over a third (35 percent) list explainability of machine learning models as one of the main barriers to adopting ML.5  Although a cautious approach is understandable and advisable, there are various ways to tackle the explainability problem. One major differentiator is whether you build explainability into the model or try to explain it post hoc—after it's trained.  Using post hoc explainability  Complex ML models are, by their nature, not self-explanatory. However, several post hoc explainability techniques are model agnostic (they don't depend on the model being analyzed) and they don't require model developers to add specific constraints during training.  Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) is one used approach. It can help you understand the average marginal contribution features to an output. For instance, how much each feature (input) affected the resulting credit score.  The analysis can be time-consuming and expensive, but it works with black box models even if you only know the inputs and outputs. You can also use the Shapley values for local explanations, and then extrapolate the results for a global explanation.  Other post hoc approaches also might help shine a light into a black box model, including partial dependence plots and local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME).  READ MORE: Getting AI-driven decisioning right in financial services  Build explainability into model development  Post hoc explainability techniques have limitations and might not be sufficient to address some regulators' explainability and transparency concerns.6 Alternatively, you can try to build explainability into your models. Although you might give up some predictive power, the approach can be a safer option.  For instance, you can identify features that could potentially lead to biased outcomes and limit their influence on the model. You can also compare the explainability of various ML-based models to see which may be more or less inherently explainable. For example, gradient boosting machines (GBMs) may be preferable to neural networks for this reason.7  You can also use ML to blend traditional and alternative credit data, which may provide a significant lift — around 60 to 70 percent compared to traditional scorecards — while maintaining explainability.8  READ MORE: Journey of an ML Model  How Experian can help  As a leader in machine learning and analytics, Experian partners with financial institutions to create, test, validate, deploy and monitor ML-driven models. Learn how you can build explainable ML-powered models using credit bureau, alternative credit, third-party and proprietary data. And monitor all your ML models with a web-based platform that helps you track performance, improve drift and prepare for compliance and audit requests. *When we refer to “Alternative Credit Data," this refers to the use of alternative data and its appropriate use in consumer credit lending decisions, as regulated by the Fair Credit Reporting Act. Hence, the term “Expanded FCRA Data" may also apply and can be used interchangeably.  1-3. FinRegLab (2021). The Use of Machine Learning for Credit Underwriting  4. Experian (2022). Explainability: ML and AI in credit decisioning  5. Experian (2023). Finding the Lending Diamonds in the Rough  6. FinRegLab (2021). The Use of Machine Learning for Credit Underwriting  7. Experian (2022). Explainability: ML and AI in credit decisioning  8. Experian (2023). Raising the AI Bar 

Today's lenders use expanded data sources and advanced analytics to predict credit risk more accurately and optimize their lending and operations. The result may be a win-win for lenders and customers. What is credit risk? Credit risk is the possibility that a borrower will not repay a debt as agreed. Credit risk management encompasses the policies, tools and systems that lenders use to understand this risk. These can be important throughout the customer lifecycle, from marketing and sending preapproved offers to underwriting and portfolio management. Poor risk management can lead to unnecessary losses and missed opportunities, especially because risk departments need to manage risk with their organization's budgetary, technical and regulatory constraints in mind. How is it assessed?  Credit risk is often assessed with credit risk analytics — statistical modeling that predicts the risk involved with credit lending. Lenders may create and use credit risk models to help drive decisions. Additionally (or alternatively), they rely on generic or custom credit risk scores: Generic scores: Analytics companies create predictive models that rank order consumers based on the likelihood that a person will fall 90 or more days past due on any credit obligation in the next 24 months. Lenders can purchase these risk scores to help them evaluate risk. Custom scores: Custom credit risk modeling solutions help organizations tailor risk scores for particular products, markets, and customers. Custom scores can incorporate generic risk scores, traditional credit data, alternative credit data* (or expanded FCRA-regulated data), and a lender's proprietary data to increase their effectiveness. About 41 percent of consumer lending organizations use a model-first approach, and 55 percent use a score-first approach to credit decisioning.1 However, these aren't entirely exclusive groupings. For example, a credit score may be an input in a lender's credit risk model — almost every lender (99 percent) that uses credit risk models for decisioning also uses credit scores.2 Similarly, lenders that primarily rely on credit scores may also have business policies that affect their decisions. What are the current challenges? Risk departments and teams are facing several overarching challenges today: Staying flexible: Volatile market conditions and changing consumer preferences can lead to unexpected shifts in risk. Organizations need to actively monitor customer accounts and larger economic trends to understand when, if, and how they should adjust their risk policies. Digesting an overwhelming amount of data: More data can be beneficial, but only if it offers real insights and the organization has the resources to understand and use it efficiently. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are often important for turning raw data into actionable insights. Retaining IT talent: Many organizations are trying to figure out how to use vast amounts of data and AI/ML effectively. However, 82 percent of lenders have trouble hiring and retaining data scientists and analysts.3 Separating fraud and credit losses: Understanding a portfolio's credit losses can be important for improving credit risk models and performance. But some organizations struggle to properly distinguish between the two, particularly when synthetic identity fraud is involved. Best practices for credit risk management Leading financial institutions have moved on from legacy systems and outdated risk models or scores. And they're looking at the current challenges as an opportunity to pull away from the competition. Here's how they're doing it: Using additional data to gain a holistic picture: Lenders have an opportunity to access more data sources, including credit data from alternative financial services and consumer-permissioned data. When combined with traditional credit data, credit scores, and internal data, the outcome can be a more complete picture of a consumer's credit risk. Implementing AI/ML-driven models: Lenders can leverage AI/ML to analyze large amounts of data to improve organizational efficiency and credit risk assessments. 16 percent of consumer lending organizations expect to solely use ML algorithms for credit decisioning, while two-thirds expect to use both traditional and ML models going forward.4 Increasing model velocity: On average, it takes about 15 months to go from model development to deployment. But some organizations can do it in less than six.5 Increasing model velocity can help organizations quickly respond to changing consumer and economic conditions. Even if rapid model creation and deployment isn't an option, monitoring model health and recalibrating for drift is important. Nearly half (49 percent) of lenders check for model drift monthly or quarterly — one out of ten get automated alerts when their models start to drift.6 WATCH: Accelerating Model Velocity in Financial Institutions Improving automation and customer experience Lenders are using AI to automate their application, underwriting, and approval processes. Often, automation and ML-driven risk models go hand-in-hand. Lenders can use the models to measure the credit risk of consumers who don't qualify for traditional credit scores and automation to expedite the review process, leading to an improved customer experience. Learn more by exploring Experian's credit risk solutions. Learn more * When we refer to “Alternative Credit Data," this refers to the use of alternative data and its appropriate use in consumer credit lending decisions as regulated by the Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA). Hence, the term “Expanded FCRA Data" may also apply in this instance and both can be used interchangeably. 1-6. Experian (2023). Accelerating Model Velocity in Financial Institutions

Well-designed underwriting strategies are critical to creating more value out of your member relationships and driving growth for your business. But what makes an advanced underwriting strategy? It’s all about the data, analytics, and the people behind it. How a credit union achieved record loan growth Educational Federal Credit Union (EdFed) is a member-owned cooperative dedicated to serving the financial needs of school employees, students, and parents within the education community. After migrating to a new loan origination system, the credit union wanted to design a more profitable underwriting strategy to increase efficiency and grow their business. EdFed partnered with Experian to design an advanced underwriting strategy using our vast data sources, advanced analytics, and recommendations for greater automation. After 30 months of implementing the new loan origination system and underwriting strategies, the credit union increased their loans by 32% and automated approvals by 21%. “The partnership provided by Experian, backed by analytics, makes them the dream resource for our growth as a credit union. It isn’t just the data… it’s the people.” – Michael Aubrey, SVP Lending at Educational Federal Credit Union Learn more about how Experian can help you enhance your underwriting strategy. Learn more

If you’re a manager at a business that lends to consumers or otherwise extends credit, you certainly are aware that 10-15% of your current customers and prospective future customers are among the approximately 27 million consumers who are now – or will soon be -- fitting another bill into their monthly budgets. Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the government issued a pause on federal student loan payments and interest. Now that the payment pause has expired, millions of Americans face a new bill averaging more than $200. Will they pay you first? If this is your concern, you aren’t alone: Experian recently held a webinar that discussed how the end of the student loan pause might affect businesses. When we surveyed the webinar attendees,  nearly 3 out of 4 responses included Risk Management as a main concerns now. Another top concern is about credit scores. Lenders and investors use credit scores – bureau scores such FICO® or VantageScore® credit score or custom credit scores proprietary to their institution – to predict credit default risk. The risk managers at those companies want to know to what extent they can continue to rely on those scores as Federal student loan payments come due and consumers experience payment shock. I’ve analyzed a large and statistically meaningful sample (10% of the US consumer population in Experian’s Ascend Sandbox) to shed some light on that question. As background information, the average consumer with student loans had lower scores before the pandemic than the average of the general population. One of my Experian colleagues has explored some of the reasons at https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/research/average-student-loan-payments). Here are some of the things we can learn from comparing the credit data of the two groups of people. I looked at a period from 2019 and from 2023 to see how things have changed: Average credit scores increased during the pandemic, continuing a long-term trend during which more Americans have been willing and able to meet all their obligations. During the COVID Public Health Emergency, consumers with student loans brought up their scores by an average of 25 points; that was 7 points more than consumers without student loans. Another way to look at it: in 2019, consumers with student loans had credit scores 23 points lower than consumers without. By 2023, that difference had shrunk to 16 points. Experian research shows that there will be little immediate impact on credit scores when the new bills come due. Time will tell whether these increased credit scores accurately reflect a reduction in the risk that consumers will default on other bills such as auto loans or bankcards soon, even as some people fit student loan bills into their budgets. It is well-known that many people saved money during the public health emergency. Since then, the personal savings rate has fallen from a pandemic high of 32% to levels between 3% and 5% this year – lower than at any point since the 2009 recession. In an October 2023 Experian survey, only 36% of borrowers said they either set aside funds or they planned using other financial strategies specifically for the resumption of their student loan payments. Additional findings from that study can be found here. Furthermore, there are changes in the way your customers have used their credit cards over the last four years:   Consumers’ credit card balances have increased over the last four years. Consumers with student loans have balances that are on average $282 (4%) more now than in 2019. That is a significantly smaller increase than for consumers without student loans, whose total credit card debt increased by an average of $1,932 (26%). Although their balances increased, the ratio of consumers’ total revolving debt balances to their credit limits (utilization) changed by less than 1% for both consumers with student loans and consumers without. In 2019, the utilization ratio was 9.8 percentage points lower for consumers with student loans than consumers without. Four years later, the difference is nearly the same (9.6 points). We can conclude that many student loan borrowers have been very responsible with credit during the Public Health Emergency. They may have been more mindful of their credit situation, and some may have planned for the day when their student loan payments will be due. As the student loan pause come to an end, there are a few things that lenders and other businesses should be doing to be ready: Even if you are not a student loan lender, it is important to stay on top of the rapidly evolving student loan environment. It affects many of your customers, and your business with them needs to adapt. Anticipate that fraudsters and abusers of credit will be creative now: periods of change create opportunities for them and you should be one step ahead. Build optimized strategies in marketing, account opening, and servicing. Consider using machine learning to make more accurate predictions. Those strategies should reflect trends in payments, balances, and utilization; older credit scores look at a single point in time. Continually refresh data about your customers—including their credit scores and important attributes related to payments, balances, and utilization patterns. Look for alternative data that will give you a leg up on the competition. In the coming weeks and months, Experian’s data scientists will monitor measures of performance of the scores and attributes that you depend on in your data-driven strategies — particularly focusing on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistics that will show changes in the predictive power of each score and attribute. (If you are a data-driven business, your data science team or a trusted partner should be doing the same thing with a more specific look at your customer base and business strategies.) In future reports and blog posts, we’ll shed light on the impact student loans are having on your customers and on your business. In the meantime, for more information about how to use data and advanced analytics to grow while controlling costs and risks, all while staying in compliance and providing a good customer experience, visit our website.

With great risk comes great reward, as the saying goes. But when it comes to business, there's huge value in reducing and managing that risk as much as possible to maximize benefits — and profits. In today's high-tech strategic landscape, financial institutions and other organizations are increasingly using risk modeling to map out potential scenarios and gain a clearer understanding of where various paths may lead. But what are risk models really, and how can you ensure you're creating and using them correctly in a way that actually helps you optimize decision-making? Here, we explore the details. What is a risk model? A risk model is a representation of a particular situation that's created specifically for the purpose of assessing risk. That risk model is then used to evaluate the potential impacts of different decisions, paths and events. From assigning interest rates and amortization terms to deciding whether to begin operating in a new market, risk models are a safe way to analyze data, test assumptions and visualize potential scenarios. Risk models are particularly valuable in the credit industry. Credit risk models and credit risk analytics allow lenders to evaluate the pluses and minuses of lending to clients in specific ways. They are able to consider the larger economic environment, as well as relevant factors on a micro level. By integrating risk models into their decision-making process, lenders can refine credit offerings to fit the assessed risk of a particular situation. It goes like this: a team of risk management experts builds a model that brings together comprehensive datasets and risk modeling tools that incorporate mathematics, statistics and machine learning. This predictive modeling tool uses advanced algorithmic techniques to analyze data, identify patterns and make forecasts about future outcomes. Think of it as a crystal ball — but with science behind it. Your team can then use this risk model for a wide range of applications: refining marketing targets, reworking product offerings or reshaping business strategies. How can risk models be implemented? Risk models consolidate and utilize a wide variety of data sets, historical benchmarks and qualitative inputs to model risk and allow business leaders to test assumptions and visualize the potential results of various decisions and events. Implementing risk modeling means creating models of systems that allow you to adjust variables to imitate real-world situations and see what the results might be. A mortgage lender, for example, needs to be able to predict the effects of external and internal policies and decisions. By creating a risk model, they can test how scenarios such as falling interest rates, rising unemployment or a shift in loan acceptance rates might affect their business — and make moves to adjust their strategies accordingly. One aspect of risk modeling that can't be underestimated is the importance of good data, both quantitative and qualitative. Efforts to implement or expand risk modeling should begin with refining your data governance strategy. Maximizing the full potential of your data also requires integrating data quality solutions into your operations in order to ensure that the building blocks of your risk model are as accurate and thorough as possible. It's also important to ensure your organization has sufficient model risk governance in place. No model is perfect, and each comes with its own risks. But these risks can be mitigated with the right set of policies and procedures, some of which are part of regulatory compliance. With a comprehensive model risk management strategy, including processes like back testing, benchmarking, sensitivity analysis and stress testing, you can ensure your risk models are working for your organization — not opening you up to more risk. How can risk modeling be used in the credit industry? Risk modeling isn't just for making credit decisions. For instance, you might model the risk of opening or expanding operations in an underserved country or the costs and benefits of existing one that is underperforming. In information technology, a critical branch of virtually every modern organization, risk modeling helps security teams evaluate the risk of malicious attacks. Banking and financial services is one industry for which understanding and planning for risk is key — not only for business reasons but to align with relevant regulations. The mortgage lender mentioned above, for example, might use credit risk models to better predict risk, enhance the customer journey and ensure transparency and compliance. It's important to highlight that risk modeling is a guide, not a prophecy. Datasets can contain flaws or gaps, and human error can happen at any stage.. It's also possible to rely too heavily on historical information — and while they do say that history repeats itself, they don't mean it repeats itself exactly. That's especially true in the presence of novel challenges, like the rise of artificial intelligence. Making the best use of risk modeling tools involves not just optimizing software and data but using expert insight to interpret predictions and recommendations so that decision-making comes from a place of breadth and depth. Why are risk models important for banks and financial institutions? In the world of credit, optimizing risk assessment has clear ramifications when meeting overall business objectives. By using risk modeling to better understand your current and potential clients, you are positioned to offer the right credit products to the right audience and take action to mitigate risk. When it comes to portfolio risk management, having adequate risk models in place is paramount to meet targets. And not only does implementing quality portfolio risk analytics help maximize sales opportunities, but it can also help you identify risk proactively to avoid costly mistakes down the road. Risk mitigation tools are a key component of any risk modeling strategy and can help you maintain compliance, expose potential fraud, maximize the value of your portfolio and create a better overall customer experience. Advanced risk modeling techniques In the realm of risk modeling, the integration of advanced techniques like machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing how financial institutions assess and manage risk. These technologies enhance the predictive power of risk models by allowing for more complex data processing and pattern recognition than traditional statistical methods. Machine learning in risk modeling: ML algorithms can process vast amounts of unstructured data — such as market trends, consumer behavior and economic indicators — to identify patterns that may not be visible to human analysts. For instance, ML can be used to model credit risk by analyzing a borrower’s transaction history, social media activities and other digital footprints to predict their likelihood of default beyond traditional credit scoring methods. Artificial intelligence in decisioning: AI can automate the decisioning process in risk management by providing real-time predictions and risk assessments. AI systems can be trained to make decisions based on historical data and can adjust those decisions as they learn from new data. This capability is particularly useful in credit underwriting where AI algorithms can make rapid decisions based on market conditions. Financial institutions looking to leverage these advanced techniques must invest in robust data infrastructure, skilled personnel who can bridge the gap between data science and financial expertise, and continuous monitoring systems to ensure the models perform as expected while adhering to regulatory standards. Challenges in risk model validation Validating risk models is crucial for ensuring they function appropriately and comply with regulatory standards. Validation involves verifying both the theoretical foundations of a model and its practical implementation. Key challenges in model validation: Model complexity: As risk models become more complex, incorporating elements like ML and AI, they become harder to validate. Complex models can behave in unpredictable ways, making it difficult to understand why they are making certain decisions (the so-called "black box" issue). Data quality and availability: Effective validation requires high-quality, relevant data. Issues with data completeness, accuracy or relevance can lead to incorrect model validations. Regulatory compliance: With regulations continually evolving, keeping risk models compliant can be challenging. Different jurisdictions may have varying requirements, adding to the complexity of validation processes. Best practices: Regular reviews: Continuous monitoring and periodic reviews help ensure that models remain accurate over time and adapt to changing market conditions. Third-party audits: Independent reviews by external experts can provide an unbiased assessment of the risk model’s performance and compliance. These practices help institutions maintain the reliability and integrity of their risk models, ensuring that they continue to function as intended and comply with regulatory requirements. Read more: Blog post: What is model governance? How Experian can help Risk is inherent to business, and there's no avoiding it entirely. But integrating credit risk modeling into your operations can ensure stability and profitability in a rapidly evolving business landscape. Start with Experian's credit modeling services, which use expansive data, analytical expertise and the latest credit risk modeling methodologies to better predict risk and accelerate growth. Learn more *This article includes content created by an AI language model and is intended to provide general information.

Model governance is growing increasingly important as more companies implement machine learning model deployment and AI analytics solutions into their decision-making processes. Models are used by institutions to influence business decisions and identify risks based on data analysis and forecasting. While models do increase business efficiency, they also bring their own set of unique risks. Robust model governance can help mitigate these concerns, while still maintaining efficiency and a competitive edge. What is model governance? Model governance refers to the framework your organization has in place for overseeing how you manage your development, model deployment, validation and usage.1 This can involve policies like who has access to your models, how they are tested, how new versions are rolled out or how they are monitored for accuracy and bias.2 Because models analyze data and hypotheses to make predictions, there's inherent uncertainty in their forecasts.3 This uncertainty can sometimes make them vulnerable to errors, which makes robust governance so important. Machine learning model governance in banks, for example, might include internal controls, audits, a thorough inventory of models, proper documentation, oversight and ensuring transparent policies and procedures. One significant part of model governance is ensuring your business complies with federal regulations. The Federal Reserve Board and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) have published guidance protocols for how models are developed, implemented and used. Financial institutions that utilize models must ensure their internal policies are consistent with these regulations. The OCC requirements for financial institutions include: Model validations at least once a year Critical review by an independent party Proper model documentation Risk assessment of models' conceptual soundness, intended performance and comparisons to actual outcomes Vigorous validation procedures that mitigate risk Why is model governance important — especially now? More and more organizations are implementing AI, machine learning and analytics into their models. This means that in order to keep up with the competition's efficiency and accuracy, your business may need complex models as well. But as these models become more sophisticated, so does the need for robust governance.3 Undetected model errors can lead to financial loss, reputation damage and a host of other serious issues. These errors can be introduced at any point from design to implementation or even after deployment via inappropriate usage of the model, drift or other issues. With model governance, your organization can understand the intricacies of all the variables that can affect your models' results, controlling production closely with even greater efficiency and accuracy. Some common issues that model governance monitors for include:2 Testing for drift to ensure that accuracy is maintained over time. Ensuring models maintain accuracy if deployed in new locations or new demographics. Providing systems to continuously audit models for speed and accuracy. Identifying biases that may unintentionally creep into the model as it analyzes and learns from data. Ensuring transparency that meets federal regulations, rather than operating within a black box. Good model governance includes documentation that explains data sources and how decisions are reached. Model governance use cases Below are just three examples of use cases for model governance that can aid in advanced analytics solutions. Credit scoring A credit risk score can be used to help banks determine the risks of loans (and whether certain loans are approved at all). Governance can catch biases early, such as unintentionally only accepting lower credit scores from certain demographics. Audits can also catch biases for the bank that might result in a qualified applicant not getting a loan they should. Interest rate risk Governance can catch if a model is making interest rate errors, such as determining that a high-risk account is actually low-risk or vice versa. Sometimes changing market conditions, like a pandemic or recession, can unintentionally introduce errors into interest rate data analysis that governance will catch. Security challenges One department in a company might be utilizing a model specifically for their demographic to increase revenue, but if another department used the same model, they might be violating regulatory compliance.4 Governance can monitor model security and usage, ensuring compliance is maintained. Why Experian? Experian® provides risk mitigation tools and objective and comprehensive model risk management expertise that can help your company implement custom models, achieve robust governance and comply with any relevant federal regulations. In addition, Experian can provide customized modeling services that provide unique analytical insights to ensure your models are tailored to your specific needs. Experian's model risk governance services utilize business consultants with tenured experience who can provide expert independent, third-party reviews of your model risk management practices. Key services include: Back-testing and benchmarking: Experian validates performance and accuracy, including utilizing statistical metrics that compare your model's performance to previous years and industry benchmarks. Sensitivity analysis: While all models have some degree of uncertainty, Experian helps ensure your models still fall within the expected ranges of stability. Stress testing: Experian's experts will perform a series of characteristic-level stress tests to determine sensitivity to small changes and extreme changes. Gap analysis and action plan: Experts will provide a comprehensive gap analysis report with best-practice recommendations, including identifying discrepancies with regulatory requirements. Traditionally, model governance can be time-consuming and challenging, with numerous internal hurdles to overcome. Utilizing Experian's business intelligence and analytics solutions, alongside its model risk management expertise, allows clients to seamlessly pass requirements and experience accelerated implementation and deployment. Experian can optimize your model governance Experian is committed to helping you optimize your model governance and risk management. Learn more here. References 1Model Governance," Open Risk Manual, accessed September 29, 2023. https://www.openriskmanual.org/wiki/Model_Governance2Lorica, Ben, Doddi, Harish, and Talby, David. "What Are Model Governance and Model Operations?" O'Reilly, June 19, 2019. https://www.oreilly.com/radar/what-are-model-governance-and-model-operations/3"Comptroller's Handbook: Model Risk Management," Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. August 2021. https://www.occ.treas.gov/publications-and-resources/publications/comptrollers-handbook/files/model-risk-management/pub-ch-model-risk.pdf4Doddi, Harish. "What is AI Model Governance?" Forbes. August 2, 2021. https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2021/08/02/what-is-ai-model-governance/?sh=5f85335f15cd

From science fiction-worthy image generators to automated underwriting, artificial intelligence (AI), big data sets and advances in computing power are transforming how we play and work. While the focus in the lending space has often been on improving the AI models that analyze data, the data that feeds into the models is just as important. Enter: data-centric AI. What is a data-centric AI? Dr. Andrew Ng, a leader in the AI field, advocates for data-centric AI and is often credited with coining the term. According to Dr. Ng, data-centric AI is, ‘the discipline of systematically engineering the data used to build an AI system.’1 To break down the definition, think of AI systems as a combination of code and data. The code is the model or algorithm that analyzes data to produce a result. The data is the information you use to train the model or later feed into the model to request a result. Traditional approaches to AI focus on the code — the models. Multiple organizations download and use the same data sets to create and improve models. But today, continued focus on model development may offer a limited return in certain industries and use cases. A data-centric AI approach focuses on developing tools and practices that improve the data. You may still need to pay attention to model development but no longer treat the data as constant. Instead, you try to improve a model's performance by increasing data quality. This can be achieved in different ways, such as using more consistent labeling, removing noisy data and collecting additional data.2 Data-centric AI isn't just about improving data quality when you build a model — it's also part of the ongoing iterative process. The data-focused approach should continue during post-deployment model monitoring and maintenance. Data-centric AI in lending Organizations in multiple industries are exploring how a data-centric approach can help them improve model performance, fairness and business outcomes. For example, lenders that take a data-centric approach to underwriting may be able to expand their lending universe, drive growth and fulfill financial inclusion goals without taking on additional risk. Conventional credit scoring models have been trained on consumer credit bureau data for decades. New versions of these models might offer increased performance because they incorporate changes in the economic landscape, consumer behavior and advances in analytics. And some new models are built with a more data-centric approach that considers additional data points from the existing data sets — such as trended data — to score consumers more accurately. However, they still solely rely on credit bureau data. Explainability and transparency are essential components of responsible AI and machine learning (a type of AI) in underwriting. Organizations need to be able to explain how their models come to decisions and ensure they are behaving as expected. Model developers and lenders that use AI to build credit risk models can incorporate new high-quality data to supplement existing data sets. Alternative credit data can include information from alternative financial services, public records, consumer-permissioned data, and buy now, pay later (BNPL) data that lenders can use in compliance with the Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA).* The resulting AI-driven models may more accurately predict credit risk — decreasing lenders' losses. The models can also use alternative credit data to score consumers that conventional models can't score. Infographic: From initial strategy to results — with stops at verification, decisioning and approval — see how customers travel across an Automated Loan Underwriting Journey. Business benefit of using data-centric AI models Financial services organizations can benefit from using a data-centric AI approach to create models across the customer lifecycle. That may be why about 70 percent of businesses frequently discuss using advanced analytics and AI within underwriting and collections.3 Many have gone a step further and implemented AI. Underwriting is one of the main applications for machine learning models today, and lenders are using machine learning to:4 More accurately assess credit risk models. Decrease model development, deployment and recalibration timelines. Incorporate more alternative credit data into credit decisioning. AI analytics solutions may also increase customer lifetime value by helping lenders manage credit lines, increase retention, cross-sell products and improve collection efforts. Additionally, data-centric AI can assist with fraud detection and prevention. Case study: Learn how Atlas Credit, a small-dollar lender, used a machine learning model and loan automation to nearly doubled its loan approval rates while decreasing its credit risk losses. How Experian helps clients leverage data-centric AI for better business outcomes During a presentation in 2021, Dr. Ng used the 80-20 rule and cooking as an analogy to explain why the shift to data-centric AI makes sense.5 You might be able to make an okay meal with old or low-quality ingredients. However, if you source and prepare high-quality ingredients, you're already 80% of the way toward making a great meal. Your data is the primary ingredient for your model — do you want to use old and low-quality data? Experian has provided organizations with high-quality consumer and business credit solutions for decades, and our industry-leading data sources, models and analytics allow you to build models and make confident decisions. If you need a sous-chef, Experian offers services and has data professionals who can help you create AI-powered predictive analytics models using bureau data, alternative data and your in-house data. Learn more about our AI analytics solutions and how you can get started today. 1DataCentricAI. (2023). Data-Centric AI.2Exchange.scale (2021). The Data-Centric AI Approach With Andrew Ng.3Experian (2021). Global Insights Report September/October 2021.4FinRegLab (2021). The Use of Machine Learning for Credit Underwriting: Market & Data Science Context. 5YouTube (2021). A Chat with Andrew on MLOps: From Model-Centric to Data-Centric AI *Disclaimer: When we refer to “Alternative Credit Data," this refers to the use of alternative data and its appropriate use in consumer credit lending decisions, as regulated by the Fair Credit Reporting Act. Hence, the term “Expanded FCRA Data" may also apply in this instance and both can be used interchangeably.

Using data to understand risk and make lending decisions has long been a forte of leading financial institutions. Now, with artificial intelligence (AI) taking the world by storm, lenders are finding innovative ways to improve their analytical capabilities. How AI analytics differs from traditional analytics Data analytics is analyzing data to find patterns, relationships and other insights. There are four main types of data analytics: descriptive, diagnostic, predictive and prescriptive. In short, understanding the past and why something happened, predicting future outcomes and offering suggestions based on likely outcomes. Traditionally, data analysts and scientists build models and help create decisioning strategies to align with business needs. They may form a hypothesis, find and organize relevant data and then run analytics models to test their hypothesis. However, time and resource constraints can limit the traditional analytics approach. As a result, there might be a focus on answering a few specific questions: Will this customer pay their bills on time? How did [X] perform last quarter? What are the chances of [Y] happening next year? AI analytics isn't completely different — think of it as a complementary improvement rather than a replacement. It relies on advances in computing power, analytics techniques and different types of training to create models more efficient than traditional analytics. By leveraging AI, companies can automate much of the data gathering, cleaning and analysis, saving them time and money. The AI models can also answer more complex questions and work at a scale that traditional analytics can't keep up with. Advances in AI are additionally offering new ways to use and interact with data. Organizations are already experimenting with using natural language processing and generative AI models. These can help even the most non-technical employees and customers to interact with vast amounts of data using intuitive and conversational interfaces. Benefits of AI analytics The primary benefits of AI-driven analytics solutions are speed, scale and the ability to identify more complex relationships in data. Speed: Where traditional analytics might involve downloading and analyzing spreadsheets to answer a single question, AI analytics automates these processes – and many others.Scale: AI analytics can ingest large amounts of data from multiple data sources to find analytical insights that traditional approaches may miss. When combined with automation and faster processing times, organizations can scale AI analytics more efficiently than traditional analytics.Complexity: AI analytics can answer ambiguous questions. For example, a marketing team may use traditional analytics to segment customers by known characteristics, such as age or location. But they can use AI analytics to find segments based on undefined shared traits or interests, and the results could include segments that they wouldn't have thought to create on their own. The insights from data analytics might be incorporated into a business intelligence platform. Traditionally, data analysts would upload reports or update a dashboard that business leaders could use to see the results and make educated decisions. Modern business intelligence and analytics solutions allow non-technical business leaders to analyze data on their own. With AI analytics running in the background, business leaders can quickly and easily create their own reports and test hypotheses. The AI-powered tools may even be able to learn from users' interactions to make the results more relevant and helpful over time. WATCH: See how organizations are using business intelligence to unlock better lending decisions with expert insights and a live demo. Using AI analytics to improve underwriting From global retailers managing supply chains to doctors making life-changing diagnoses, many industries are turning to AI analytics to make better data-driven decisions. Within financial services, there are significant opportunities throughout customer lifecycles. For example, some lenders use machine learning (ML), a subset of AI, to help create credit risk models that estimate the likelihood that a borrower will miss a payment in the future. Credit risk models aren't new — lenders have used models and credit scores for decades. However, ML-driven models have been able to outperform traditional credit risk models by up to 15 percent.1 In part, this is because the machine learning models might use traditional credit data and alternative credit data* (or expanded FCRA-regulated data), including information from alternative financial services and buy now pay later loans. They can also analyze the vast amounts of data to uncover predictive attributes that logistic regression (a more traditional approach) models might miss. The resulting ML models can score more consumers than traditional models and do so more accurately. Lenders that use these AI-driven models may be able to expand their lending universe and increase automation in their underwriting process without taking on additional risk. However, lenders may need to use a supervised learning approach to create explainable models for credit underwriting to comply with regulations and ensure fair lending practices. Read: The Explainability: ML and AI in credit decisioning report explores why ML models will become the norm, why explainability is important and how to use machine learning. Experian helps clients use AI analytics Although AI analytics can lead to more productive and efficient analytics operations over time, the required upfront cost or expertise may be prohibitive for some organizations. But there are simple solutions. Built with advanced analytics, our Lift Premium™ scoring model uses traditional and alternative credit data to score more consumers than conventional scoring models. It can help organizations increase approvals among thin-file and credit-invisible consumers, and more accurately score thick-file consumers.2 Experian can also help you create, test, deploy and monitor AI models and decisioning strategies in a collaborative environment. The models can be trained on Experian's vast data sources and your internal data to create a custom solution that improves your underwriting accuracy and capabilities. Learn more about machine learning and AI analytics. * When we refer to “Alternative Credit Data," this refers to the use of alternative data and its appropriate use in consumer credit lending decisions as regulated by the Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA). Hence, the term “Expanded FCRA Data" may also apply in this instance and both can be used interchangeably. 1. Experian (2020). Machine Learning Decisions in Milliseconds 2. Experian (2022). Lift PremiumTM product sheet

Credit risk management best practices have been established and followed for years, but new technology and data sources offer lenders an opportunity to refine their credit risk management strategies.   What is credit risk management? Credit risk is the possibility that a borrower will not repay a debt as agreed. And credit risk management is the art and science of using risk mitigation tools to minimize losses while maximizing profits from lending activity.   Lenders can create credit underwriting criteria for each of their products and use risk-based pricing to alter the terms of a loan or line of credit based on the risk associated with the product and borrower. Credit portfolio management goes beyond originations and individual decisions to consider portfolios at large.   CASE STUDY: Atlas Credit worked with Experian to create a machine learning-powered model, optimize risk score cutoffs and automate their underwriting. The small-dollar lender nearly doubled its loan approval rates while reducing its losses by up to 20 percent. Why is credit risk management important? Continually managing credit risk matters because there's always a balancing act.   Tightening a credit box — using more restrictive underwriting criteria — might reduce credit losses. However, it can also decrease approval rates that would exclude borrowers who would have repaid as agreed. Expanding a credit box might increase approval rates but is only beneficial if the profit from good new loans exceeds credit losses.   Fraud is also on the rise and becoming more complex, making fraud management an important part of understanding risk. For instance, with synthetic identity fraud, fraudsters might “age an account" or make on-time payments before, “busting out” or maxing out a credit card and then abandoning the account.  If you look at payment activity alone, it might be hard to classify the loss as a fraud loss or credit loss.  Additionally, external economic forces and consumer behavior are constantly in flux. Financial institutions need effective consumer risk management and to adjust their strategies to limit losses. And they must dynamically adjust their underwriting criteria to account for these changes. You could be pushed off balance if you don't react in time. What does managing credit risk entail? Lenders have used the five C’s of credit to measure credit risk and make lending decisions for decades:  Character: The likelihood a borrower will repay the loan as agreed, often measured by analyzing their credit report and a credit risk score.   Capacity: The borrower's ability to pay, which lenders might measure by reviewing their outstanding debt, income, and debt-to-income ratio.   Capital: The borrower's commitment to the purchase, such as their down payment when buying a vehicle or home.   Collateral: The value of the collateral, such as a vehicle or home for an auto loan or mortgage.   Conditions: The external conditions that can impact a borrower's ability to afford payments, such as broader economic trends.  Credit risk management considers these within the context of a lender’s goals and its specific lending products. For example, capital and collateral aren't relevant for unsecured personal loans, which makes character and capacity the primary drivers of a decision.   Credit risk management best practices at origination Advances in analytics, computing power and real-time access to additional data sources are helping lenders better measure some of the C’s.   For example, credit risk scores can more precisely assess character for a lender's target market than generic risk scores. And open banking data allows lenders to more accurately understand a borrower's capacity by directly analyzing their cash flows.   With these advances in mind, leading lenders:  View underwriting as a dynamic process: Lenders have always had to respond to changing forces, and the pandemic highlighted the need to be nimble. Consider how you can use analytical insights to quickly adjust your strategies.   Test the latest credit risk modeling techniques: Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques can improve credit risk model performance and drive automated credit risk decisioning. We've seen ML models consistently outperform traditional credit risk models by 10 to 15 percent.¹ Use multiple data sources: Alternative credit data* and consumer-permissioned data offer increased and real-time visibility into borrowers' creditworthiness. These additional data sources can also help fuel ML credit risk models.   Expand their lending universe: Alternative data can also help lenders more accurately assess the credit risk of the 49 million Americans who don't have a credit file or aren't scoreable by conventional models.² At the same time, they consciously remove biases from their decisions to increase financial inclusion.  READ: The Getting AI-driven decisioning right in financial services white paper explores trends, advantages, challenges and best practices for using AI in decisioning.   Experian helps lenders measure and manage credit risk Experian can trace its history of helping companies manage their credit risk back to 1803.³ Of course, a lot has changed since then, and today Experian is a leading provider of traditional credit data, alternative credit data and credit risk analytics.   For those who want to quickly benefit from the latest technological advancements, our Lift Premium™ credit risk model uses traditional and alternative data to score up to 96 percent of U.S. consumers — compared to the 81 percent that conventional models can score.4 Experian’s Ascend Platform and Ascend Intelligence Services™ can help lenders develop, deploy and monitor custom credit risk models to optimize their decisions.    With end-to-end platforms, our account and portfolio management services can help you limit risk, detect fraud, automate underwriting and identify opportunities to grow your business.   Learn more about Experian's approach to credit risk management ¹Experian (2020). Machine Learning Decisions in Milliseconds ²Oliver Wyman (2022). Financial Inclusion and Access to Credit ³Experian (2013). A Brief History of Experian 4Experian (2023). Lift Premium™ and Lift Plus™ *When we refer to “Alternative Credit Data," this refers to the use of alternative data and its appropriate use in consumer credit lending decisions, as regulated by the Fair Credit Reporting Act. Hence, the term “Expanded FCRA Data" may also apply and can be used interchangeably.

In a changing economy, banks of all sizes are more budget conscious, leading many to pull back on their marketing spend for new customer acquisition. But by making strategic marketing moves now, banks can uncover new opportunities and drive profitable, long-term growth. So, how can you find, engage, and win over high-value customers? Know who’s in the market for credit To build an effective bank customer acquisition strategy, you’ll want to be proactive with your campaign planning. Let’s say you’ve already defined your customer profile and have insights into their interests, lifestyles, and demographics. With predictive metrics and advanced tools like trended data and propensity-to-open models, you can further refine your segmentation strategies by identifying individuals who are likely to be in the market for your product. This way, you can reach consumers at the right time and personalize offers to achieve higher open rates. Embrace the digital era With today’s consumers increasing their banking activities online, leveraging digital channels in your bank customer acquisition strategy is imperative. In addition to connecting with consumers through direct mail, consider reaching out to them through email, social media, or your mobile banking applications. This will not only help increase the visibility of the offer, but also allow consumers to receive and respond faster. Another way to enhance your banking strategies for growth while meeting consumer expectations for digital is by making it easier and more convenient for consumers to onboard. With an automated and data-driven credit decisioning solution, you can streamline steps that are traditionally manual and time-consuming, such as data collection and identity verification. By providing seamless customer acquisition in banking, you can accelerate your decision-making and increase the likelihood of conversion. Make the most of your marketing spend While customer acquisition in banking should remain a high priority, we understand that driving growth on a tight marketing budget can be challenging. That’s why we created a tip sheet outlining ways for banks and other lenders to enhance their customer acquisition processes while effectively managing costs. Some of the tips include: Going beyond conventional scoring methods. By leveraging an advanced customer acquisition solution, you can gain a holistic view of your prospective customers to enhance predictive performance and identify hidden growth opportunities. Focusing on high-potential customers. Pinpointing consumers who are actively seeking credit enables you to focus your offers and resources on those who are likely to respond, resulting in a greater return on marketing investment. Amplifying your credit offers. Re-presenting preapproved credit offers through the digital channels that consumers most frequent enables you to expand your campaign reach, increase response rates, and reduce direct mailing costs. View the tip sheet to learn how you can make the most of your marketing budget to acquire new customers and drive long-term growth. Access tip sheet

Every data-driven organization needs to turn raw data into insights and, potentially, foresight. There was a time when lack of data was a hindrance, but that's often no longer the case. Many organizations are overwhelmed with too much data and lack clarity on how to best organize or use it. Modern business intelligence platforms can help. And financial institutions can use business intelligence analytics to optimize their decisioning and uncover safe growth opportunities. What is business intelligence? Business intelligence is an overarching term for the platforms and processes that organizations use to collect, store, analyze and display data and information. The ability to go from raw data to useful insights and foresight presents organizations with a powerful advantage, and can help them greatly improve their operations and efficiencies. Let’s pause and break down the below terms before expanding on business intelligence. Data: The raw information, such as customers' credit scores. Many organizations collect so much data that keeping it all can be an expensive challenge. Access to new types of data, such as alternative credit data, can assist with decisioning — but additional data points are only helpful if you have the resources or expertise to process and analyze them.Information: Once you process and organize data points, you can display the resulting information in reports, dashboards, and other visualizations that are easier to understand. Therefore, turning raw data into information. For example, the information you acquire might dictate that customers with credit scores over 720 prefer one of your products twice as much as your other products.Insight: The information tells you what happened, but you must analyze it to find useful and actionable insights. There could be several reasons customers within a specific score band prefer one product over another, and insights offer context and help you decide what to do next. In addition, you could also see what happened to the customers who were not approved.Foresight: You can also use information and insights to make predictions about what can happen or how to act in the future given different scenarios. For example, how your customers' preferences will likely change if you offer new terms, introduce a new product or there's a large economic shift. Business intelligence isn't new — but it is changing. Traditionally, business intelligence heavily relied on IT teams to sift through the data and generate reports, dashboards and other visualizations. Business leaders could ask questions and wait for the IT team to answer the queries and present the results. Modern business intelligence platforms make that process much easier and offer analytical insights. Now even non-technical business leaders can quickly answer questions with cloud-based and self-service tools. Business intelligence vs. business intelligence analytics Business intelligence can refer to the overall systems in place that collect, store, organize and visualize your data. Business intelligence tends to focus on turning data into presentable information and descriptive analytics — telling you what happened and how it happened. Business intelligence analytics is a subset of business intelligence that focuses on diagnostics, predictive and prescriptive analytics. In other words, why something happened, what could happen in the future, and what you should do. Essentially, the insights and foresight that are listed above. How can modern business intelligence benefit lenders? A business intelligence strategy and advanced analytics and modeling can help lenders precisely target customers, improve product offerings, streamline originations, manage portfolios and increase recovery rates. More specifically, business intelligence can help lenders uncover various trends and insights, such as: Changes in consumers' financial health and credit behavior.How customers' credit scores migrate over time.The risk performance of various portfolios.How product offerings and terms compare to competitors.Which loans are they losing to peers?Which credit attributes are most predictive for their target market? Understanding what's working well today is imperative. But your competitors aren't standing still. You also need to monitor trends and forecast the impact — good or bad — of various changes. WATCH: Webinar: Using Business Intelligence to Unlock Better Lending Decisions Using business intelligence to safely grow your portfolio Let's take a deeper dive into how business intelligence could help you grow your portfolio without taking on additional risk. It's an appealing goal that could be addressed in different ways depending on the underlying issue and business objective. For example, you might be losing loans to peers because of an acquisition strategy that's resulting in declining good customers. Or, perhaps your competitors' products are more appealing to your target customers. Business intelligence can show you how many applications you received, approved, and booked — and how many approved or declined applicants accepted a competitor's offer. You can segment and analyze the results based on the applicant’s credit scores, income, debt-to-income, loan amounts, loan terms, loan performance and other metrics. An in-depth analysis might highlight meaningful insights. For example, you might find that you disproportionately lost longer-term loans to competitors. Perhaps matching your competitors' long-term loan offerings could help you book more loans. READ: White paper: Getting AI-driven decisioning right in financial services Experian's business intelligence analytics solutions Lenders can use modern business intelligence platforms to better understand their customers, products, competitors, trends, and the potential impact of shifting economic circumstances or consumer behavior. Experian's Ascend Intelligence Services™ suite of solutions can help you turn data points into actionable insights. Ascend Intelligence Services™ Acquire Model: Create custom machine learning models that can incorporate internal, bureau and alternative credit data to more accurately assess risk and increase your lending universe.Ascend Intelligence Services™ Acquire Strategy: Get a more granular view of applicants that can help you improve segmentation and increase automation.Ascend Intelligence Services™ Pulse: A model and strategy health dashboard that can help you proactively identify and remediate issues and nimbly react to market changes.Ascend Intelligence Services™ Limit: Set and manage credit limits during account opening and when managing accounts to increase revenue and mitigate risk.Ascend Intelligence Services™ Foresight: A modern business intelligence platform that offers easy-to-use tools that help business leaders make better-informed decisions. Businesses can also leverage Experian's industry-leading data assets and expertise with various types of project-based and ongoing engagements. Learn more about how you can implement or benefit from business intelligence analytics.

Jennifer Schulz, CEO of Experian, North America kicked off Experian’s annual Vision conference Tuesday morning pointing to data, analytics, technology and collective curiosity as the drivers for change and a more impactful tomorrow to more than 700 attendees. Keynote speaker: Jennifer Bailey Jennifer Bailey, Vice President of Apple Pay and Apple Wallet, spoke about the customer experience “ethos.” She explained how Apple takes a long-term view and values the single most important performance metric as customer experience. She said creating a seamless customer experience comes down to making things simple and understandable, and asking, “Are we solving a customer problem?” and “How are we making it easier for customers to enjoy and liver their lives. Bailey, who said of all apps she uses the weather app the most, also talked about innovation, and that both intent and making mistakes are important parts of the process. Apple’s products are known for their user-friendliness, and design is part of that. She encouraged the audience to give design teams room to create without bottom line pressures and not to be afraid to take well-considered risks. Keynote Speaker: Gary Cohn Gary Cohn, Vice Chairman of IBM, talked about the current economic climate, and while it’s a natural viewpoint to look to the past for guidance, the current environment is unlike any before. Cohn discussed regulatory compliance in the banking industry and prioritizing safety and soundness. While AI is topical and in numerous headlines recently, Cohn reminded the conference goers that AI isn’t new. He said what is new and important is that you can now teach models to find the information needed rather than having to feed all the information yourself. He believes AI is not the end of employment, but rather helps boost productivity, efficiency, and job satisfaction and provides organizations more data. As for advice for the audience, Cohn shared opportunities are in the uncomfortable zones and you have to be willing to fail in order to succeed. Session highlights – Day 1 The conference hall was buzzing with conversations, discussions and thought leadership. Overall themes that were frequently part of the conversation included seamless customer experiences, agility in face of economic changes and leveraging AI/ML into strategies. Fraud automation and preventing commercial fraud More businesses are opening than ever before and lenders and service providers need a way to determine risk from businesses who are less than a year old. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to fraud. A layered solution assesses risk and applies the correct friction to resolve the risk and pass or refer the applicant. Identity Today’s consumer wants a personalized experience and is privacy conscious. Additionally, regulators are also pushing for greater privacy. Clean rooms allow you and a partner to add data to a safe space and learn more about consumers without exposing data. The right data improves acquisition rates, identity verification and allows you to anticipate customer needs. Advanced scoring Data, models and strategy are the levers institutions are using to leverage responsible analytics to meet their objectives like safely growing existing portfolios, managing the “right” level of risk, and providing a seamless digital experience. However, the total value of a decisioning system is almost always constrained by its most rudimentary component. The panel of experts discussed their uses and goals for leveraging models and customer experience was at the top of their priorities. Recession preparedness Delinquency is on the rise and lending offers made continue to drop. Changes in the economic climate require frequent monitoring of portfolio and decisions, benchmarking against peers, updating credit models and decision strategies, and stress testing portfolio and models. Trends in credit risk management While AI at the hands of everyone is topical today, it ranked lowest on the list of trends attendees believed were impacting their business. At the top of the list? The growing demand for simpler, faster and seamless experiences. More insights from Vision to come. Follow @ExperianVision and @ExperianInsights to see more of the action.